Arcane Crypto’s research unit predicts that the second-layer Bitcoin payment protocol, Lightning Network, will go parabolic within a decade.
The “State of Lightning” report released by Arcane Research on October 5 looked at the current capacity of the Lightning Network in terms of wallet payment volume, increased adoption rate, and online services.
The report explained that by 2026, 90 percent of Salvadorans over the age of 15 will have access to Lightning payments, with $ 17 billion in annual payments in remittances. There were also ambitious predictions for the future of the Lightning Network. There will be 50 million Lightning users by 2030, the report suggests.
Arcane; He argues that Lightning, which can be used for microtransactions, has “huge” potential.
It predicts 700 million users in all usage scenarios by 2030. “Our estimate is that there will be 364 trillion Lightning operations per year,” the report says.
The research, conducted in collaboration with Bitcoin payments company OpenNode, highlights how use of the Lightning Network has increased dramatically since late last year. El Salvador’s adoption of Bitcoin (BTC) on September 7 boosted the network even further:
“The parabolic growth took place in September 2021. This was mainly due to the adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador.”
The report also highlighted the importance of Paxful’s peer-to-peer cryptocurrency exchange, which offers Lightning payment solutions to its 7 million user base, and the leading-edge BTC feature that Twitter offers to its 186 million users.
Since Lightning launched on the Bitcoin network nearly three years ago, the network has grown to a capacity of nearly 3,000 BTC, with 17,000 nodes and 73,700 unique channels.
“Bitcoin’s open capacity in Lightning is over $ 120 million. Users around the world offer the ability to make small payments in near real time at very low fees,” the report said.
But while public metrics like total channel capacity have seen rapid growth in adoption, wallet payment volumes have far exceeded this metric since August.
“As we believe this is the best metric for adoption, we focus on widespread use across wallet providers. As such, the estimated figures do not include developer activity, channel rebalancing, and most of the business-to-business (B2B) transactions, “he said. said.
According to Arcane, the wallet’s payment volume has increased 20 percent month-over-month since August, far exceeding the monthly growth rate of 10 percent compared to the channel’s capacity data.
“The gap widened even further in September, with the volume of payments almost doubling compared to a 26 percent increase in open channel capacity,” the report said.
El Salvador and other countries
Arcane estimates that approximately 90 percent of the population aged 15 and over in El Salvador will have access to Lightning payments by 2026.
The forecast is based on a number of technical assumptions, such as the 15% annual internet adoption growth observed in 2018 and 2019, and the accuracy of the 2.1 million user data from President Nayib Bukele’s Chivo wallet. of September.
Related: Bitcoin Lightning Network’s Node Count Hits Record
The report estimates that if other countries with “weak banking access” follow El Salvador’s move, they will have an annual payment volume of $ 17 billion on the network by 2030 and there could be 50 million Lightning users.