Bitcoin price claims to follow China’s debt cycles

The next record that Bitcoin (BTC) will break could be another bubble, according to new research.

Explaining a theory that could enrage Bitcoin bulls guru of Scientific materials analyticssuggested that there is a strong correlation between Bitcoin price cycles and China’s debt cycles.

Is halving not as effective as it sounds?

The BTC / USD pair, which last set a record in April 2021, is expected to break another record by the end of the year.

By looking at the history of Bitcoin, Material Scientist found that the two previous spikes in the price of Bitcoin coincided with spikes in China’s debt cycles.

The observed tides in the difference between April and today of this year show that Bitcoin has calmed down. According to the analyst, this not only shows that Bitcoin behaves like other assets, but also reveals that post-halving supply restrictions are irrelevant.

The analyst also referred to the ideas of investor Ray Dalio, known for his research on China’s economic behavior.

Material Scientist says: “I think Dalio is absolutely right that debt cycles create bubbles. Here, too, the correlation is clear. “

“But what if the halving rhetoric is nonsense and BTC’s performance is only related to China’s debt cycles?”

According to the discourse based on halving, the value of Bitcoin should increase against assets whose supply is unlimited, as the new supply is halved every four years. As can be seen from the stock-to-flow price pattern, these increases in value should be much higher than before.

China and its debts, which were on the agenda last year for the coronavirus and now for Evergrande, pushed investors to agree with this idea.

One commentator even pointed out that Bitcoin whales are sold after peaking in every debt cycle in China, and April 2021 is no exception.

Therefore, in the current situation, it is possible that the price of BTC will rebound and rise again.

Bitcoin liquid index, China debt cycle data and BTC / USD chart. Source: Material Scientist / Twitter

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